Probability et Statistics

Probability and statistics are essential mathematical tools for modeling and study of complex systems subject to the uncertainties.

The system of air traffic management involves human operators, computer systems, and complex operating procedures. Its operation must take into account a number of uncertainties (weather, delays of passengers, aircraft, etc.). It must also make every effort to avoid potential risks (collisions, accidents).

We work primarily on two research themes, with the aim of implementing statistical methods and probability to benefit the specific needs of system of air traffic management.

Probabilistic techniques for the analysis of safety in ATM

The first theme focuses on the safety analysis of complex distributed systems, in the context of Air Traffic Management.

For example, the estimate of the risk of collision between aircraft requires to model the behavior of various actors, then simulate with special techniques to observe dangerous events (loss of separation, collision, etc..). For more details refer to the following web pages :

Statistical methods for ATM

The second theme is to implement advanced statistical methods to meet the specific needs of the ATM. Examples include the analysis of data from experiments, the study of prediction errors of aircraft trajectories.

The techniques used include the analysis of time series (wavelet filter), statistical modeling (logistic models, cf. CREED), statistical learning methods, etc